Crypto Recon #1: Investment Or Gambling, BTC Weekends!

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We begin our monthly cryptocurrency market analysis, that is to say, phenomena that stood out significantly from other cryptocurrencies. Whether it was a noteworthy rise or an equally interesting fall. 

As we said in the statement at the beginning of the week, we want to go deeper into stories. That is how Crypto Recon was created. This is a recurring series of cryptocurrency analysis. We will be doing this on the first Friday of every month. Today, we have Bitcoin to talk about.

Let’s take a closer look at the Bitcoin phenomenon today

Have you ever wondered about the phenomenon of weekend Bitcoin increases? Last month we were able to observe two big waves of BTCUSD demand (14-17 June and 21-24 June). Every day after that, we observed strong increases, which reinforced BTC leading to the forcing of subsequent resistance without any supply reaction. Although the last weekend of June brought cooling of emotions, and as a result market decline, but we will write about it on the further part of the article. 

A short history that is a quick glance at the BTCUSD chart

The initial stagnation in 2019, turned into an extraordinary activity on BTCUSD market from 2nd April, which is almost impossible to notice on the Forex market. Overcoming and implementations of new formations at an incredible pace led currency rates to new heights.

Horizontal trends, which we were able to observe was undoubtedly a bull market. Individual formations, including the ascending triangle and the flags, were filling up perfectly – we wrote about it on our reports for the newsletter (it is worth signing up to get to know technical market conditions).

2018 vs 2019 – technical levels of BTCUSD

In the six months of 2019, BTCUSD went way up the summits, which had started in 2018. Last year was marked by bearish sentiments, and the attempts to break existing resistance were only an unaccomplished dream.

The first signals about market changes we were able to notice after breaking a very strong resistance of $5000, which provided support for the course between February and November in 2018. Gaining the next stages was just only formalities to build euphoric moods among investors, and the level of $10000 became a psychological point.

Whence these increases?

In my opinion, the BTC price strongly depends on the social moods. Without any doubt, the first cryptocurrency, in a way, “dictates” the market trends. Overcoming the resentments successive one after another is connected with attitudes representing emotional states like disbelief, hopes or in consequence optimism leading the rate to spectacular heights. 

While analysing reports in the media, the $10000 resistance is supposed to be a confirmation for the further market exploration to the higher summits. According to the Fundstart co-founders, Thomas Lee, one of the most recognisable crypto-world faces from Wall Street, breaking through of this level is to be the signal for the critics that will confirm the rationale for the existence of a digital asset market.  Forcing the psychological resistance of $10000 by Bitcoin caused a strong FOMO (fear of missing out) reaction, that is a crypto society fear of being omitted in the important market event.

Thomas Lee also presented the arguments that were supposed to confirm the stability of growths such as:

  • Increase in blockchain transactions volume
  • The rally resulting from the technical analysis
  • Increase in cryptocurrencies transactions volume

In my opinion, each piece of information that is supported by socially respected authorities, or even the one which may have speculative traits, is undoubtedly reflected in the market. It is our actions triggered by this information influence on the price changes. Additionally stimulating the activities by the public opinion around BTCUSD has a very strong impact on the investors’ community.

Easy come, easy go

Why, after such a fast and strong increase, was there a sudden fall in BTCUSD rate? There can’t be any clear and certain answers and there is a multitude of speculative theories about the subject.

Such unexpected increase usually results in sudden drops. After almost vertical rally wall, the  BTCUSD rate lost around $2000 on a matter of 15 minutes, which means 15% fall. We waited for a $2000 increase of around 24 hours. 

One of the problems of a strong BTC depreciation was probably the problem with instantaneous functioning of Coinbase platform(connected with API error). However, if it were, in fact, the only reason for the fall, after clarification of the above, the increase should be a natural and quick answer. It is possible that euphoria connected with the increase was stołowe and investors willingness to realize profits increased.  

What next, the possible investment scenario

At the time of writing, this article BTCUSD rate is oscillating around $11500 and it is a significant level where the trend lines cross. I’m probably in the minority, as far as the possible exchange rate forecasts on the described cryptocurrency are concerned, because I predict its decrease. It is possible, the market will try to reach, once again, up to the resistance of $12100-$12400 and for the patient, I recommend selling BTCUSD at these levels.  

What are your positions on the market? Are you buying or selling? We don’t have to agree all the time on the transactions to be jadę, but exchanging our experience is always valuable.

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